A scenario framework for valuation, benchmark performance, and the supply pressure created by SpaceX’s staged share unlocks.
Reference price$112.84
24-month base case$100–$110
Eligible float by Dec. 2026~40%
One-page brief
The 360 Vantage
A responsive, text-native snapshot of the forecast range, benchmark paths, and staged eligible-float expansion.
MRTNZ Investment Office · July 2026
SpaceX 24-month public-market outlook
Bottom lineBase case: $100–$110 over 24 months as float expansion and valuation pressure temper upside.
Reference price
$112.84
24-month base case
$100–$110
Eligible float by Dec. 2026
~40% ceiling
Scenario framework
What the market may price
24-month indexed scenario pathsIndexed to 100 at the $112.84 SpaceX reference price
175
150
125
100
75
50
Today12 months24 months
SpaceX best$210
SpaceX base$100–$110
SpaceX worst$49
QQQ$825 (+20%)
SPY$865 (+17%)
Straight-line visualization between today and the 24-month endpoints—not a timing forecast. The SpaceX base path uses the midpoint of the displayed $100–$110 range.
Best case$210
Starship execution and Starlink economics beat expectations.
Base case$100–$110
Float expansion tempers upside while fundamentals catch up.
Worst case$49
Unlocks collide with weak results, cash burn, or material delays.
Estimated float after first earnings-linked release
~12% → ~19%
Estimated float after the next scheduled tranche
~19% → ~40%
Estimated cumulative range across rolling releases
~40% ceiling
Standard 180-day pool ends; extended lockups remain
Near-full eligibility
Musk’s 366-day lockup becomes eligible to end
Current setup · As of July 28, 2026
First earnings: what matters
The headline estimates matter, but contract conversion, capex, cash burn, and forward guidance are likely to determine the stock reaction.
Report dateAug. 4, 2026
After market close · webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET
Revenue estimate$6.98B
Benzinga Pro snapshot · about 49% above Q1 revenue
Published EPS range-$0.20 to -$0.29
Thin post-IPO coverage; estimates are not yet tightly converged
MRTNZ base case$6.9B / -$0.24
Near the published range; guidance and cash burn should drive the reaction
Bullish printRevenue above $7.2B
Paired with a loss narrower than $0.20 per share, clear Anthropic ramp evidence, and disciplined spending guidance.
Base print$6.8B–$7.1B revenue
A loss around $0.20–$0.30 per share, with stock direction determined by guidance and post-earnings supply.
Bearish printRevenue below $6.6B
Especially if paired with a wider loss, heavier capex, vague contract disclosures, or a Starship timetable slip.
Published estimate snapshots differ: Benzinga Pro shows $6.98B revenue and a $0.25 loss per share; MarketBeat shows one estimate at a $0.20 loss; a separate GAAP market benchmark was set at a $0.29 loss. MRTNZ figures are scenarios, not consensus data.
Revenue architecture
Connectivity funds the present; AI drives the forecast
Reported segment results anchor the history. Published total-revenue estimates and Goldman Sachs’s AI forecast anchor the forward view; MRTNZ allocates the remaining revenue between Space and Connectivity.
2026 total-revenue consensus$38.93B
$33.32B–$44.94B published range · 12 estimates
2027 total-revenue consensus$74.20B
$54.78B–$90.93B published range · 13 estimates
Revenue mix
AI approaches half of modeled revenue by 2027
SpaceConnectivityAI
2025A
21.9%61.0%17.1%
2026E
11.6%48.4%40.1%
2027E
7.4%46.1%46.5%
Revenue by division and forecast, USD billions
Division
2025A
Q1 2026A
2026E
2027E
Primary driver
Space
$4.09B
$0.62B
$4.50B
$5.50B
Launch, rideshare, and government work
Connectivity
$11.39B
$3.26B
$18.83B
$34.20B
Starlink consumer, mobility, and enterprise
AI
$3.20B
$0.82B
$15.60B
$34.50B
xAI plus Anthropic and Google compute ramp
Consolidated
$18.67B
$4.69B
$38.93B
$74.20B
Reported actuals and published total estimates
Sell-side range · As of July 28, 2026
Analyst targets remain extremely wide
The average target is lifted by aggressive outliers and should not be treated as a fair-value consensus.
There is strategic logic and increasingly public signaling, but there are no executable terms. Until a board-approved agreement and SEC filing exist, timing and value transfer remain speculation.
What is confirmed
SpaceX explored a combination earlier in 2026. On July 22, Musk cited increasing operational overlap and said any transaction would require an “appropriate process.”
Strategic logic
Shared AI compute, Terafab, batteries, manufacturing, energy infrastructure, robotics, engineering talent, and a single capital-allocation platform.
Principal blockers
Related-party governance, independent valuation and fairness work, shareholder approvals, dilution, U.S. national-security scrutiny, and China exposure.
Illustrative value bridge
What a combination could look like at current market values
10% premium to TeslaSPCX holders 53.2% · TSLA holders 46.8%
Deal discount$2.47T
A 10% conglomerate/governance discount would pressure both stocks, with SPCX exposed to dilution and TSLA losing a clean takeover premium.
Neutral case$2.74T
No immediate value creation. TSLA may receive a premium, but legacy SPCX holders fund it through a larger share count.
Synergy case$3.02T
A 10% combined uplift requires credible cost savings, shared infrastructure economics, and no material regulatory penalty.
Illustrative arithmetic, not price targets. Exact stock effects cannot be calculated without the acquirer, exchange ratio, premium, debt treatment, tax structure, and closing conditions.
Exploration
Possible board committees, valuation work, and regulatory planning. None has been publicly confirmed.
3–6 months
S-4/proxy review, fairness materials, shareholder votes, and initial regulatory clearances.
6–18+ months
Mid-to-late 2027 is the earliest plausible window if a deal is signed by early 2027; cross-border review could extend or block it.
