S&P 500

How to read the forecast

Near-term anchors. Long-term range.

The base path begins with the published MRTNZ call of +8.0% over 12 months and +17.0% over 24 months, then transitions to a normalized long-run rate. Every line is an annual underwriting path, not a claim about the route markets will take between observations.

Assumptions & invalidation

• The first two annual anchors retain the published MRTNZ 12- and 24-month SPY calls.
• The base path assumes broad nominal earnings growth, positive productivity, and no sustained recession-driven valuation reset.
• The bear path assumes an early contraction before recovery; the bull path assumes wider participation and stable long-term discount rates.

Re-underwrite when: Re-underwrite if forward earnings breadth, recession risk, inflation and rates, or top-weight concentration materially depart from the path assumptions.